If you’re looking to take your football betting to the next level and maximize your chances of winning big, then correct score betting could be the key. In this blog post, we’ll provide you with some valuable insight about correct score betting, including what it is and why are punters attracted to it. We also cover losing runs, rights mindset and money management together with mathematical methods for finding value in correct score bets. Lastly, we will share with you two powerful tools that will transform your correct score betting forever!
What is correct score betting?
Correct score betting is a type of football betting where you predict the final score of a match. This means that you not only have to predict which team will win but also how many goals they will score. For example, if you think that Manchester United will beat Liverpool 3-1, then you would place a bet on a correct score of 3-1. If the final score of the match is indeed 3-1, then you win your bet. Simples, right?
Well, may not be as simple as many people claim it to be.
Betting on the correct score of a match can be very rewarding as it’s a relatively difficult bet to predict. Unlike betting on the winner of a match, which can be influenced by factors such as a team’s overall strength or form, the correct score depends on the specific details of how a match plays out. The biggest attraction of the correct score wagers are for sure all the huge payouts when the bets win. However, there seems to be not much information about the times when you struggle to find those winning correct score tips and how to build a proper long-term betting plan for this type of football betting.
Losing Streaks in Correct Score betting
When we mention the losing streak we refer to a sequence of consecutive bets that have not won. The length of a losing streak can vary depending on a number of factors, including the odds of the bets placed and the randomness inherent in the sport being bet on.
When betting on correct score markets, you will be wagering on higher odds. Bigger odds often indicate a greater degree of uncertainty or risk associated with the outcome of the bet. This means that it is less likely that the bet will win, which can result in a longer losing streak.
On the other hand, the potential payout from a winning bet is greater, which can make it tempting for bettors to continue betting in the hopes of recouping their losses and turning a profit. This can lead to bettors chasing their losses, which can exacerbate any losing streak and potentially result in even greater losses.
A maximum expected losing run for betting at odds of 9/1 (10.00) is 37 consecutive lost bets!
In general, it is difficult to predict the exact length of a losing streak, as the outcome of any individual bet is largely determined by chance. You can use online calculators for predicting possible losing streaks depending on the odds that you bet.
It is important to keep in mind that losing streaks are a normal and expected part of sports betting, and even the most experienced bettors will experience them from time to time.
Correct mindset and correct money management for correct score betting
Before placing your first correct score bet, you should make a long-term plan for your betting strategy. It’s important to have the right expectations (learn more in our Betting Academy) as well as set yourself a proper bank management plan for your correct score betting.
Correct score betting involves backing outcomes at significantly higher odds and therefore losing runs will eat up big chunks of your capital at times. Therefore, it’s vital for you to choose the right staking methods and stake size.
As mentioned before, when betting at odds of 10.00 (9/1), you can expect to have 37 consecutive lost bets, therefore you need to prepare yourself for that occurrence and set your betting bank appropriately. As a rule of thumb, use a bank big enough to have at least 100 points (for 1% stake per bet), but ideally, you would want 200 points or bigger (for 0.5% per bet) to make it less stressful during bad betting periods.
The key is to manage your betting bankroll carefully and not to chase your losses by increasing your bet sizes in an attempt to make up for previous losses. This can help to minimize the impact of losing streaks and ensure that you are able to enjoy the long-term benefits of correct score betting.
Fixed Correct Score matches?
Rigged or fixed games are against the law and unethical. It is therefore unlikely that parties involved in such matches would publicly promote or recognise them. Along with having systems in place to monitor for and look into any suspected match-fixing incidents, sports leagues and regulating organisations have strong laws and regulations in place to stop such acts. As a result, it is doubtful that fixed matches would be widespread or common.
Please be aware of anyone offering you or trying to sell you insider information about so-called fixed matches and correct score coupons. You will lose your money twice – firstly will be cheated by someone trying to sell you that information and then when placing a bet. Don’t fall for it. Learn to find an edge in the correct score betting the proper way…
Mathematics of Correct Score Predictions
The Poisson Distribution formula that we use to predict a number of goals for each team.
The Poisson Distribution is a probability distribution that is commonly used in predicting the likelihood of a given number of events occurring within a specified period of time. In the context of correct score betting on football matches, the Poisson Distribution can be used to model the number of goals that each team is likely to score based on their historical performance and other factors. This information can then be used to calculate the odds for different correct score bets and help bookmakers set prices that accurately reflect the probability of each outcome.
To use the Poisson Distribution for correct score betting, bookmakers collect data on the historical performance of the teams involved in the match. This data can include things like the average number of goals scored per game, the teams’ win/loss/draw record, and the number of goals they have conceded. This information can then be used to calculate the average number of goals that each team is likely to score in the upcoming match.
Once the average number of goals for each team has been calculated, the Poisson Distribution can be used to determine the probability of different correct score outcomes. For example, if Team A has an average of 1.5 goals per game and Team B has an average of 0.5 goals per game, the Poisson Distribution can be used to calculate the probability of the final score being 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, etc.
These probabilities can then be used to calculate the odds for each correct score bet.
Finding Value in the Correct Score markets
To find value bets using the Poisson Distribution method, punters can compare the probabilities calculated using this method with the odds offered by bookmakers. If the probability of a certain outcome is higher than the odds being offered, this could represent a value bet.
For example, if the probability of a 2-1 final score is 10% but the bookmaker is offering odds of 11/1 for that outcome, this could be considered a value bet because the predicted probability is higher than the odds being offered.
Obviously, coming up with your own probabilities for every match and comparing bookmakers’ odds can be a daunting task, but we have got your back. Consider the following solutions:
Correct Score King – FREE Betting App
The Correct Score King app uses Poisson Distribution models to predict the 3 most likely football scores for every match, every day! You can browse the matches by a given score e.g. 2-0 and it will instantly show you matches with the highest probability of ending up in 2-0.
Alternatively, you can browse match by match to see the top 3 most likely correct score predictions.
The only app you need for your correct score betting and trading
“Unlock the secrets of correct score betting with Correct Score King! Our FREE tips, picks, and predictions are based on advanced mathematical models that provide the most accurate and reliable correct score predictions for every league match. Browse selections match by match, or pick a correct score to see the games with the highest chances of that score line. With Correct Score King, you’ll have the edge you need to win big on correct score bets.”
Advanced statistics sheets for Poisson Distribution Models
If you are more serious about your correct score betting and trading, you may prefer to work with spreadsheet-style data for your correct score analysis and tracking. In that case, there is a perfect resource solution for you:
Poisson distribution for correct score predictions sheets
Kick Off Profits provide you with three Poisson Distribution models to help you make informed decisions about your football betting and trading. Unlike other models that are based only on current season stats, we provide 3 different models to give you a more comprehensive view of the teams and their performance.
The 1st model is short-term model is based on stats from the current season only, giving you an up-to-date view of the teams’ current form. Secondly, medium-term model uses stats from the last 20 matches, providing a more comprehensive view of the teams’ recent performance. And lastly, our long-term model covers stats from the last 50 matches, giving you a broader perspective on the teams’ historical performance.
All of our stats are taken from single competitions only, so you can be sure that our models are accurate and relevant for the matches you’re interested in.
Their excel style of football data and statistics are used by professional football bettors and traders, and they offer many more helpful resources to help you beat bookies.
The trick to always get the best odds for your correct score bets
Did you know that there is a place that offers the best correct score odds for every single match and will beat your bookie to it every time?
difference in odds for correct score between bookmakers and betting exchanges
Sometimes the odds difference is absolutely huge, especially for the higher scorelines.
Check the highlighted odds for huge differences in prices.
In some cases backing certain scores at betting exchanges will give you twice as good odds as when backing that score at bookmakers. We highlighted odds from the most popular bookmaker (B365) and exchange odds. Fancy backing Morocco to win 3-1? B365 gives you odds of 67, whilst you can back that score line at 150 at exchanges! £10 bet would return £670 with the bookie, whilst you would get £1500 back at the exchange (minus their commission).
Exchanges allow customers to bet against each other rather than against the house. This means that the odds on sports betting exchanges are determined by the customers themselves, and can be influenced by factors such as the amount of money being wagered on each outcome and the perceived likelihood of each outcome.
Correct Score Trading on Betfair Sports Exchange
Trading football correct score markets is another art and can be super profitable as you can dutch multiple scores in a single match and trade them (remove liability, leave free bets and hedge for profits) in-play. There is this superb ebook guide dedicated to this kind of investing, check it out:
The Ultimate Correct Score Trading on Betfair
Introducing the Ultimate Correct Score Betting & Trading system, the result of years of experience and trading on Betfair. This 75-page guide contains my best and favorite system for trading live football matches on betting exchanges.
Developed with my trading philosophy in mind, this system uses small stakes and won’t leave you with huge liabilities. The clever staking protects you from over-staking on a single match and makes it easier to handle losing streaks. And the best part? It can produce the biggest profits from matches that don’t go as planned.
The system consists of 7 different strategies, recommended for different football matches and occasions. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to take your Betfair football trading to the next level. Get your copy of the Ultimate Correct Score Betting & Trading system today.
In conclusion, correct score betting can be a valuable addition to your football betting strategy. By understanding the principles of losing runs, having the right mindset, and using mathematical methods and powerful tools, you can increase your chances of winning and make your betting more successful. With the knowledge and tips provided in this blog post, you can take your correct score betting to the next level and enjoy the thrill of potentially winning big.